Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd9e…49b3 politics 16 markets active 3h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$207,186 (+892%) realized +$220,861 · open −$13,675
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,451per market
Trades / day169.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$8,953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$9,007
other 37% −$10,689
sports 3% +$899
world 1% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-82.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -96.3% -96.7% 1% 1% -6.4%
≤30d 88 -81.0% -82.8% 3% 3% -36.7%
≤90d 88 -81.0% -82.8% 3% 3% -36.7%
all 88 -81.0% -82.8% 3% 3% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -82.8% 3% -36.7%
10% ← realistic here -84.5% 3% -42.7%
15% -86.0% 3% -48.3%
20% -87.3% 2% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -103% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -103% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,843 vs −$351 · ×8.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$8,953
Realized+$220,861
Unrealized−$13,675
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 85
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions143
Markets (closed)88 / 16
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$1,451
Trades / day169.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 143 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 55¢ 50¢ $2,750 $2,475 −$275 (-10%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3,504 $1,655 −$1,849 (-53%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,023 $1,300 −$724 (-36%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $946 $722 −$224 (-24%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $128 $325 +$198 (+154%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $357 $307 −$50 (-14%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2,603 $213 −$2,390 (-92%)
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? No 91¢ 90¢ $198 $194 −$4 (-2%)
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 39¢ 32¢ $219 $183 −$36 (-16%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3,472 $167 −$3,305 (-95%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 22¢ 16¢ $220 $165 −$55 (-25%)
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 65¢ $4 $101 +$97 (+2240%)
Will the Green Party (MP) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 79¢ 99¢ $80 $100 +$20 (+25%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2,032 $98 −$1,934 (-95%)
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2,032 $98 −$1,934 (-95%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $90 $84 −$6 (-6%)
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $215 $80 −$135 (-63%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 2¢ 48¢ $2 $75 +$72 (+3004%)
Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $22 $53 +$30 (+137%)
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 32¢ $4 $44 +$40 (+1070%)
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $34 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 88¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+42%)
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $22 $33 +$11 (+51%)
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 46¢ 69¢ $18 $28 +$9 (+51%)
Will Nikolas Ferreira win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 97¢ 98¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Will Power win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Joo Ho-young win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list Jun 17 $366 −$122 -33%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Graham Rahal win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 17 $8 −$1,274 -15644%
Will Louis Foster win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -103%
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 17 $8 −$1,237 -15189%
Will Lee Hak-jae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presiden Jun 17 $0 −$7 -1544%
Will Lee Jae-man win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Kang Min-gu win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 17 $27 −$34 -126%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 17 $8 −$1,237 -15192%
Will Katherine Legge win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 17 $8 −$12 -163%
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Caleb Kintz win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ed Carpenter win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 17 $8 −$12 -156%
Will Lance Stroll win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 17 $8 −$1,299 -15952%
Will Eman Alexander Cross be the next Prime Minister of Malta followin Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Christian Lundgaard win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Kim Han-koo win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will David Medina win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 17 $8 −$1,218 -14956%
Will Kyle Kirkwood win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Patrick Kopke-Hales win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican prima Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paul Salomone be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1339%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 17 $8 −$1,247 -15310%
Will Valtteri Bottas win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 17 $0 −$7 -1544%
Will Brad T. Peters win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary el Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 17 $60 −$40 -68%
Will Franco Colapinto win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sandra Gauci be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pato O'Ward win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Danielle Bethell win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Kyffin Simpson win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Robert Neuman win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Alexander Albon win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Yoo Young-ha win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Arnold Cassola be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Vinicius Junior join Al-Nassr? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Vinicius Junior join Al-Nassr? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Will Vinicius Junior join Al-Nassr? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $2 13h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,953.16 · official $8,952.79 (match) · 3500 history records