Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd9c…31a0 economics 57 markets active 1d ago coverage 351d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care economics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 351d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$67,893 (+13%) realized +$33,219 · open +$34,674
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$8,868per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$86,824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$648
14 days+$648
30 days+$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 99% +$69,480
other 1% +$3,752
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.6% -4.5% 100% 0% -4.5%
≤30d 4 -5.6% -14.6% 25% 0% -6.5%
≤90d 13 -25.0% -32.1% 23% 15% -6.5%
all 39 +41.7% +28.2% 46% 31% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.2% 31% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here +15.9% 23% -11.2%
15% +4.7% 15% -19.8%
20% -5.5% 8% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$13,817) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +102% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
35.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,581 vs −$1,233 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$86,824
Realized+$33,219
Unrealized+$34,674
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)39 / 57
History coverage351d ⚠
Avg bet$8,868
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 8¢ 81¢ $4,828 $49,002 +$44,174 (+915%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 89¢ 78¢ $21,429 $18,810 −$2,620 (-12%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $6,116 $6,328 +$213 (+3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 8¢ 21¢ $1,938 $4,839 +$2,901 (+150%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $385 $1,250 +$865 (+224%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 64¢ 96¢ $667 $995 +$329 (+49%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 35¢ 95¢ $365 $986 +$621 (+170%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No 19¢ 94¢ $198 $974 +$776 (+392%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 25¢ 3¢ $8,321 $917 −$7,405 (-89%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No 7¢ 84¢ $76 $870 +$794 (+1048%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 20¢ $81 $858 +$777 (+955%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $105 $445 +$340 (+322%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $5,381 $208 −$5,173 (-96%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $272 $183 −$89 (-33%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 26¢ $6 $79 +$73 (+1293%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1,200 $31 −$1,169 (-97%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $457 $26 −$431 (-94%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 31¢ 2¢ $325 $22 −$303 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $11,643 +$648 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 29 $859 −$127 -15%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) May 29 $509 −$66 -13%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $690 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $7,726 +$2,525 +33%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 07 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 07 $12,621 −$4,005 -32%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? Apr 07 $1,844 −$730 -40%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 07 $3,623 −$415 -12%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 07 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 07 $3 −$1 -47%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 07 $1,852 −$639 -34%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 07 $15,995 +$4,716 +30%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 06 $1,829 +$310 +17%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 06 $669 −$145 -22%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 06 $13,817 +$3,795 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 19 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 13 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 12 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 12 $5 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $37,065 +$6,078 +16%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 10 $13,638 +$609 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $55,544 +$20,319 +37%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $39,788 +$1,918 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $37,789 +$94 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 28 $29,377 −$6,825 -23%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 02 $0 $0 +100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $93,145 +$9,229 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $14,201 −$12,714 -90%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Sep 11 $1,359 −$82 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Sep 10 $319 −$74 -23%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 10 $49,322 +$9,841 +20%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $65 −$25 -39%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $75 −$21 -28%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $333 +$125 +38%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $154 −$25 -16%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 01 $3,777 +$1,432 +38%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 16 $524 +$2,202 +420%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 16 $42 +$613 +1470%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the e BUY Yes 8¢ $2 27h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the e BUY Yes 8¢ $0 38h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 18¢ $1,113 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 84¢ $2,647 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 84¢ $2,646 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 85¢ $2,677 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $8,326 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 6¢ $108 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $115 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $9 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $18 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $18 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $18 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $12 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $45 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $2,885 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $2,882 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 93¢ $2,896 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $3,109 6d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $25 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $12 7d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the BUY Yes 3¢ $3 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $12 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $30 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $4 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $7 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86,823.77 · official $86,824.30 (match) · 3500 history records