Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd99…6b00 crypto 1622 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$173 (-5%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate50%806W / 816L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day48.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$91
14 days−$60
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -20.3% -27.9% 45% 31% -25.5%
≤30d 569 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 33% -14.8%
≤90d 1622 -4.2% -13.4% 50% 28% -14.0%
all 1622 -4.2% -13.4% 50% 28% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 28% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 15% -22.2%
15% -29.2% 9% -29.7%
20% -36.2% 7% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses806 / 816
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1622 / 1622
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1622 Trades
no open positions (104 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records