Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd97…fdd2 weather 841 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-12%) realized −$107 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%162W / 608L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$31
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% +$23
crypto 15% −$3
sports 10% $0
world 5% $0
politics 1% $0
other 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 -16.9% -24.8% 19% 19% -6.9%
≤30d 608 -11.8% -20.2% 18% 18% -6.6%
≤90d 770 -22.4% -29.8% 21% 14% -8.1%
all 770 -22.4% -29.8% 21% 14% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 14% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.5% 14% -16.9%
15% -42.7% 13% -24.9%
20% -48.3% 11% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses162 / 608
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions71
Markets (closed)770 / 841
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 770 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Yes 23¢ 55¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+137%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 24¢ 27¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? No 20¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+94%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? No 16¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 +$2 +834%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +278%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +839%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +466%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +297%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 0m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 20¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records