Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdd96…534a crypto 202 markets active 9h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-7%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%109W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$32
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$26
other 1% −$2
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -19.8% -27.4% 46% 42% -27.1%
≤30d 202 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 49% -19.0%
≤90d 202 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 49% -19.0%
all 202 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 49% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 49% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 43% -26.7%
15% -33.2% 37% -33.8%
20% -39.7% 29% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses109 / 93
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)202 / 202
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 202 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 41h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 366 history records