Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd92…fd3b crypto 231 markets active 6h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%127W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -3.9% -13.1% 53% 47% -13.8%
≤30d 231 -0.2% -9.7% 55% 49% -10.2%
≤90d 231 -0.2% -9.7% 55% 49% -10.2%
all 231 -0.2% -9.7% 55% 49% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 49% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 48% -18.8%
15% -26.3% 48% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 48% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses127 / 104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 231
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 499 history records