Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd8e…f023 sports 657 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$140,187 (-5%) realized −$141,269 · open +$1,082
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%376W / 279L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,431per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$8,276est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10,996now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42,110
7 days−$39,584
14 days−$39,794
30 days−$57,180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$109,614
other 3% +$9,492
politics 1% +$3,361
crypto 0% +$14,650
culture 0% +$2,467
world 0% −$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -16.3% -24.3% 55% 35% -35.1%
≤30d 130 -20.3% -27.9% 51% 37% -21.8%
≤90d 543 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 45% -15.5%
all 655 -8.2% -16.9% 57% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 47% -13.2%
10% -24.9% 32% -21.5%
15% ← realistic here -32.2% 23% -29.1%
20% -38.8% 16% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,038 vs −$1,823 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$10,996
Realized−$141,269
Unrealized+$1,082
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses376 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$8,276
Open positions3
Markets (closed)655 / 657
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$4,431
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 97¢ 99¢ $6,000 $6,175 +$175 (+3%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 100¢ $3,333 $4,364 +$1,031 (+31%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 42¢ 33¢ $581 $457 −$124 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Jun 19 $37,341 −$37,341 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $563 +$50 +9%
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $2,653 +$1,847 +70%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $3,220 −$2,906 -90%
Maneiro vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $1,636 −$1,616 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5,613 +$474 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $658 +$462 +70%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $298 +$72 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,285 −$987 -77%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $407 −$305 -75%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2,121 −$2,100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,623 +$1,039 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $813 −$800 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5,006 +$203 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3,522 +$908 +26%
Yastremska vs. Maria: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $450 +$450 +100%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $4,471 +$1,084 +24%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $5,028 +$471 +9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,027 +$1,259 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,217 +$306 +25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,512 +$211 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,848 +$137 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,258 +$742 +23%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $565 +$75 +13%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $260 −$132 -51%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,920 −$1,900 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $410 −$400 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $470 −$220 -47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4,104 −$1,184 -29%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $2,703 +$228 +8%
Golubic vs. Kenin: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $722 +$482 +67%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,611 +$441 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $295 −$288 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,032 +$1,968 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,520 +$1,210 +80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,217 −$3,598 -50%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $255 −$102 -40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7,005 +$167 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $805 −$800 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 −$72 -71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $253 −$104 -41%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $6,011 +$397 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6,580 +$497 +8%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $460 +$274 +60%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $5,573 +$409 +7%
Boulter vs. Vekic: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $507 −$493 -97%
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $254 +$216 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $6,006 10m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $613 11m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $563 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $3,357 2h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Ann Li 8¢ $314 2h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 79¢ $3,220 2h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $618 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $360 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $27 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $148 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $105 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $108 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $720 4h
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 58¢ $528 4h
Maneiro vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 66¢ $45 5h
Maneiro vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 5h
Maneiro vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 5h
Maneiro vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,587 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $298 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $297 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,285 27h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Taylah Preston 10¢ $102 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $658 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $5,613 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2,121 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,995.62 · official $10,698.72 · 3500 history records