Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd8b…63b2 other 572 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,893 (+3%) realized +$3,212 · open −$319
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%338W / 225L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$374
7 days+$631
14 days+$1,792
30 days+$4,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$89
sports 8% +$1,257
world 4% +$1,253
politics 2% +$881
crypto 1% +$339
culture 0% −$232
weather 0% −$120
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +30.0% +17.6% 69% 69% +10.2%
≤30d 79 +29.8% +17.5% 62% 62% +32.5%
≤90d 206 +16.1% +5.0% 63% 62% +19.2%
all 563 +4.5% -5.4% 60% 59% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 59% -5.9%
10% -14.5% 53% -14.9%
15% -22.8% 41% -23.1%
20% -30.3% 29% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$121 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$865
Realized+$3,212
Unrealized−$319
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses338 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions5
Markets (closed)563 / 572
History coverage400d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $500 $396 −$104 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $390 $242 −$148 (-38%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $260 $214 −$46 (-18%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-62%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $312 +$95 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $81 +$129 +158%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 +$84 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $151 +$66 +44%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $152 +$107 +70%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $56 +$41 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $91 +$41 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $212 −$212 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: Jun 22 $51 +$189 +370%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $61 +$52 +86%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$31 +31%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe Jun 20 $51 +$89 +175%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$52 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $81 +$40 +50%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $71 −$70 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 +$50 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 +$62 +101%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? AND Will South Africa win on Jun 18 $141 +$71 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$57 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $121 +$72 +60%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 −$46 -92%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $122 −$11 -9%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $81 +$41 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +249%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$22 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $137 +$109 +79%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $153 +$364 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 +$403 +785%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $132 +$133 +101%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $132 −$130 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $112 +$122 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $122 +$241 +197%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $615 +$255 +41%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $174 −$150 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $263 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $175 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $407 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $312 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 57¢ $101 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $32 4h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 50¢ $51 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $81 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND England to sco BUY 34¢ $14 29h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $202 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $151 32h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2. BUY 8¢ $21 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $152 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $56 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: BUY 21¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $212 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $81 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $61 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $101 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND W BUY 26¢ $51 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 36¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 66¢ $81 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $71 5d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $865.31 · official $865.31 (match) · 1063 history records