Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd88…9027 world 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%34W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$3
other 16% −$6
politics 16% +$1
sports 8% −$4
economics 2% +$3
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 8% -10.3%
≤30d 40 +14.0% +3.1% 50% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 83 +5.5% -4.6% 34% 6% -9.4%
all 94 +2.9% -6.9% 36% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -15.8% 5% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses34 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)94 / 98
History coverage527d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $58 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $151 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $61 −$9 -14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $63 +$2 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $64 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $62 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $58 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $117 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $180 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $125 +$9 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $106 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $105 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $147 +$4 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $12 +$4 +34%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $59 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $28 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $54 −$7 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 28 $11 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $70 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $53 +$4 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $52 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $52 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $47 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $17 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $184 −$2 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $9 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $13 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $138 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 43m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $38 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $48 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $7 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $24 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $54 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $26 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $21 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.10 · official $7.00 · 435 history records