Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd88…0e15 sports 24 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+10%) realized +$30 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$15
other 14% +$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.1% -1.3% 50% 50% +2.7%
≤30d 18 +9.1% -1.3% 50% 50% +2.7%
≤90d 18 +9.1% -1.3% 50% 50% +2.7%
all 18 +9.1% -1.3% 50% 50% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 50% +2.7%
10% -10.7% 50% -7.1%
15% -19.3% 50% -16.1%
20% -27.2% 33% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $19 +$12 +62%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 +$11 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $28 +$14 +50%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $22 +$19 +83%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $5 +$9 +188%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +52%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $5 +$18 +365%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -30%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 10¢ $5 26h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 61¢ $19 26h
Will "Fake Clone" or "Fake Cloning" be said during the Valorant Master BUY Yes 24¢ $2 26h
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 22¢ $4 26h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 27h
Will "Fake Clone" or "Fake Cloning" be said during the Valorant Master BUY Yes 24¢ $4 27h
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 22¢ $3 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 34h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $43 34h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $28 37h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $28 37h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $20 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $21 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 25¢ $5 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 54¢ $22 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 65¢ $4 4d
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? SELL No $4 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $10 4d
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 32¢ $8 4d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Misa Esports $2 4d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY UCAM Esports Club 34¢ $5 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 21¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $5 5d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 25¢ $9 5d
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.92 · official $37.92 (match) · 36 history records