Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DD 0xdd86…a1be sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$282 (-2%) realized −$286 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%41W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day46.7pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$625
other 28% −$657
crypto 2% −$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -4.0% -13.2% 55% 47% -11.5%
≤30d 74 -4.0% -13.2% 55% 47% -11.5%
≤90d 74 -4.0% -13.2% 55% 47% -11.5%
all 74 -4.0% -13.2% 55% 47% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 47% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 45% -19.9%
15% -29.1% 36% -27.7%
20% -36.0% 32% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$140 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized−$286
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses41 / 33
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage5d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day46.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ 48¢ $184 $190 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $107 +$93 +86%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $216 +$184 +85%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $96 +$104 +108%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $28 +$42 +152%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $112 +$88 +79%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $73 +$127 +172%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $128 −$128 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $172 +$228 +133%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 −$148 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $342 +$58 +17%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 +$197 +97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $282 +$115 +41%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $108 +$92 +85%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $147 −$144 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $284 +$116 +41%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $284 +$116 +41%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $132 +$68 +52%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $92 +$108 +117%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $260 +$140 +54%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 22 $139 −$138 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $280 −$280 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $312 +$88 +28%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $395 +$5 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $132 +$68 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $231 −$228 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $176 −$176 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $132 −$132 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $336 +$64 +19%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $316 −$316 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $96 +$104 +108%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $396 +$4 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $126 +$74 +59%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $108 +$92 +85%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $312 +$88 +28%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $184 +$216 +117%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $71 +$129 +181%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $236 −$236 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $320 +$80 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $187 56m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $203 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $107 7h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 54¢ $216 9h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $19 10h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $4 10h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $46 10h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $18 10h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $8 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $128 10h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $28 12h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $73 12h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $87 13h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 13h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $24 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $151 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $172 16h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $62 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $23 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $24 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 27h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 29h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $55 29h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $53 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $147 30h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $282 30h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $132 32h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $139 32h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $284 32h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $280 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.00 · official $388.00 (match) · 272 history records