Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd7e…8970 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$97 (+6%) realized +$109 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%42W / 35L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$73
14 days+$161
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$89
world 7% −$3
other 6% +$13
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +27.7% +15.5% 64% 59% +4.3%
≤30d 69 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 51% -2.3%
≤90d 77 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 49% -3.3%
all 77 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 49% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 49% -3.3%
10% -15.3% 48% -12.6%
15% -23.5% 44% -21.0%
20% -31.0% 35% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$109
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses42 / 35
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)77 / 83
History coverage33d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 29¢ 100¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+245%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+160%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 45¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$8 +152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will paiN qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$28 +109%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $15 +$29 +194%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $21 +$31 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$12 +59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 +$41 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$16 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $35 +$14 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$27 +67%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$17 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 +$31 +101%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $115 +$5 +4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $75 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$21 +68%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$34 +34%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Will paiN qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -10%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Monte qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -12%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $20 +$13 +63%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 −$10 -68%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$28 +140%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 −$15 -59%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $105 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$8 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $5 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 8h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $30 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 39¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $10 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 35h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 35h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $30 35h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $21 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $20 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $31 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $35 6d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 44¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 43¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $25 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 59¢ $40 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.56 · official $107.40 (match) · 163 history records