Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd7e…3e92 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$3
other 21% −$1
politics 12% +$2
finance 3% +$1
culture 3% $0
tech 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 0% -10.0%
all 30 -6.7% -15.6% 27% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -23.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage398d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 −$2 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $17 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 12 $1 $0 +4%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Dec 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Crin Antonescu? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -74%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $30 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $12 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $42 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $10 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $10 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $1 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $41 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $28 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $44 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.72 · official $37.72 (match) · 96 history records