Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd7d…e0a4 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$14
other 25% +$1
crypto 8% +$1
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -7.7% -16.5% 33% 6% -11.8%
all 34 -3.8% -12.9% 47% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 3% -11.0%
10% -21.3% 0% -19.5%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.8% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage473d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $62 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $45 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $36 −$3 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $28 −$9 -32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $5 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $50 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $16 $0 +3%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 08 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $4 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $16 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $16 −$1 -7%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 12 $16 $0 -1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $15 +$1 +3%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $29 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $33 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $37 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $32 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records