Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DD 0xdd7d…7255 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 35L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$2
sports 21% $0
other 20% +$1
politics 18% +$1
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 0% -9.0%
all 56 +2.8% -7.0% 38% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 2% -9.1%
10% -15.9% 2% -17.8%
15% -24.0% 2% -25.7%
20% -31.5% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.69 per $1 lost it wins $4.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage269d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $29 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 11 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10? Oct 10 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $0 $0 +0%
Will the US loose jobs in September? Oct 07 $3 $0 +10%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $19 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 28 $19 $0 +1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $28 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $28 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 15h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $32 22h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $32 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $29 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $31 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $31 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 27d
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL Yes $1 252d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 252d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 252d
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla SELL No 99¢ $8 252d
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $11 252d
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? SELL Yes $1 252d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records