Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd7c…b9f1 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 625d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$168 (+4%) realized +$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$47
politics 30% +$16
crypto 24% +$99
economics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 50% -40.1%
≤30d 9 -12.8% -21.1% 44% 44% -33.6%
≤90d 24 +15.9% +4.8% 58% 54% -17.0%
all 53 -1.8% -11.1% 47% 34% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 34% -6.1%
10% -19.6% 32% -15.1%
15% -27.4% 30% -23.3%
20% -34.5% 30% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage625d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 18 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 10 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 06 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Apr 29 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 03 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 30 $280 +$11 +4%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 30 $84 +$3 +4%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 06 $742 −$17 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 19 $147 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Jul 19 $742 +$7 +1%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 400k+ BTC before 2025? Dec 23 $646 +$97 +15%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Nov 25 $528 +$1 +0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 19 $117 $0 +0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Nov 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 05 $155 $0 +0%
Will Weibo Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dplus KIA win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will LNG Esports win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Fnatic win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 05 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 42d
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 73d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $292 167d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $102 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.64 · official $48.84 (match) · 235 history records