Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xdd7a…7bfb weather 1112 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (698 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$2,598 (+20%) realized +$2,517 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +442% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +318% what you keep after slip
Net edge+318%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate96%680W / 27L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day698.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,527
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (698 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+390.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 707 +442.2% +390.6% 96% 72% +21.8%
≤30d 707 +442.2% +390.6% 96% 72% +21.8%
≤90d 707 +442.2% +390.6% 96% 72% +21.8%
all 707 +442.2% +390.6% 96% 72% +21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover698.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +390.6% 72% +21.8%
10% ← realistic here +343.7% 64% +10.1%
15% +300.8% 61% -0.5%
20% +261.5% 57% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +442% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +119% → late +765% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.5 per $1 lost it wins $9.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,161
Realized+$2,517
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses680 / 27
Open positions136
Markets (closed)707 / 1112
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day698.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 136 History 707 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 91¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 61¢ 100¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? No 87¢ 100¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 17? No 95¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? No 89¢ 99¢ $28 $32 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 95¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 86¢ 98¢ $28 $31 +$4 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 93¢ 98¢ $30 $31 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? No 92¢ 97¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? No 95¢ 96¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 89¢ 93¢ $29 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? No 86¢ 96¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 89¢ 95¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? No 92¢ 96¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 87¢ 94¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 87¢ 94¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? No 91¢ 93¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? No 94¢ 93¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? No 93¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? No 75¢ 92¢ $24 $30 +$6 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 76¢ 92¢ $24 $30 +$5 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 93¢ 91¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 344 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +343%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 4? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +241%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 23? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +453%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +514%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 12? Jun 17 $0 +$7 +1456%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 31? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +1236%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +352%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +1255%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 11? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1943%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 4? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +340%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? Jun 17 $0 +$18 +6023%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 7? Jun 17 $1 +$13 +2289%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 10? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +599%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +237%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 17? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +453%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 10? Jun 17 $1 +$8 +1033%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 12? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6? Jun 17 $1 +$8 +1008%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 14? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +571%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 30? Jun 17 $1 +$6 +834%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 6? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +393%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +309%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 17? Jun 17 $1 +$6 +742%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 29? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +518%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? Jun 17 $1 +$6 +1062%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 17 $1 +$8 +1065%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 17 $1 +$15 +2839%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 16? Jun 17 $1 +$6 +1014%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 +$1 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 21? Jun 17 $0 +$19 +9600%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 17 $1 +$13 +2133%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +241%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 17 $1 +$10 +1505%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 27? Jun 17 $1 +$6 +835%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +393%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +901%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 29? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +901%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 31? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +393%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 26? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 10? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +1258%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 31? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +563%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 29? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 7? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 15? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +380%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $31 1m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $32 1m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $21 9m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $9 13m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $9 13m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $9 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $6 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $20 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $11 19m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $8 26m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $32 40m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $18 54m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 57m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,161.18 · official $1,876.55 · 3500 history records