Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdd79…bec6 crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,268 (-15%) realized −$640 · open −$1,628
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,492
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 37% -23.0%
≤30d 70 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 37% -23.0%
≤90d 70 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 37% -23.0%
all 70 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 37% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 37% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 36% -30.4%
15% -41.9% 31% -37.1%
20% -47.6% 26% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$159 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$640
Unrealized−$1,628
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 40
Open positions10
Markets (closed)70 / 80
History coverage5d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $200 $5 −$195 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $295 $0 −$295 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $259 +$94 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $163 −$155 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $134 −$128 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $183 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $202 −$195 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $224 +$369 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $158 +$181 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $214 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $418 +$321 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$78 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $239 +$185 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $232 +$89 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $206 −$95 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $338 +$80 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$154 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $216 −$206 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $139 −$133 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $95 −$92 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$45 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $208 +$290 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $210 +$82 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $236 −$19 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $131 +$166 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $243 −$233 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $208 +$271 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$103 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $129 −$19 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $131 −$125 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $98 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $110 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $577 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.11 · official $9.63 · 249 history records