Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd77…0145 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$10
sports 34% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -28.6% -35.4% 0% 0% -25.5%
≤30d 6 -28.6% -35.4% 0% 0% -25.5%
≤90d 6 -28.6% -35.4% 0% 0% -25.5%
all 6 -28.6% -35.4% 0% 0% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 0% -25.5%
10% -41.6% 0% -32.6%
15% -47.3% 0% -39.1%
20% -52.4% 0% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)6 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $158 $155 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 0¢ 10¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $41 −$3 -7%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $51 −$5 -10%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$1 -12%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 13¢ $8 1m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 42m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 33¢ $38 44m
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 45m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 18¢ $46 51m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $9 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 2¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 1h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $111 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.14 · official $383.14 (match) · 22 history records