Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd70…aebb crypto 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 666d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate94%104W / 7L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$17
politics 18% +$20
tech 0% −$12
other 0% −$2
world 0% +$1
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 25 +3.0% -6.9% 100% 8% -9.3%
all 111 -0.5% -9.9% 94% 17% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 17% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 10% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 5% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses104 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage666d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $127 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 19 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Jun 16 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 11 $130 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +15%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 31 $4 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 12? May 31 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 11 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 06 $155 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $158 $0 +0%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 26 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 26 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $162 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 05 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22? Mar 23 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? Mar 21 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 17? Mar 19 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $158 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? Mar 15 $166 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? Mar 08 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 06 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $161 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 05 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $157 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on January Jan 24 $155 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $127 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $123 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $130 17d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 30d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? BUY No 96¢ $4 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $154 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $156 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $155 47d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 99¢ $7 47d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $2 47d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $4 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $158 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $153 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $157 66d
Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April? BUY No 98¢ $2 67d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $162 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $163 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $161 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $157 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $160 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $162 90d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 99¢ $3 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $170 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $163 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 99¢ $158 96d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $166 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.86 · official $130.86 (match) · 231 history records