Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd6f…7cf5 crypto 1223 markets active 6h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$424 (-10%) realized −$424 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%546W / 676L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$15
14 days−$31
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$420
other 4% −$28
weather 4% −$10
sports 2% −$4
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -5.4% -14.5% 49% 40% -13.7%
≤30d 265 -22.8% -30.1% 33% 28% -18.6%
≤90d 1222 -7.5% -16.3% 45% 41% -19.0%
all 1222 -7.5% -16.3% 45% 41% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 41% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 38% -26.8%
15% -31.6% 35% -33.8%
20% -38.3% 31% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$424
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses546 / 676
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1222 / 1223
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? No 71¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +159%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +170%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 74¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 85¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 58¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 87¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 76¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.74 · official $4.74 (match) · 3500 history records