Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DD 0xdd6b…e0f3 sports 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$995 (+16%) realized +$1,014 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%53W / 35L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$220
14 days+$410
30 days+$937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$852
other 1% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -0.3% -9.8% 37% 37% -14.9%
≤30d 88 +26.7% +14.7% 60% 60% +4.8%
≤90d 88 +26.7% +14.7% 60% 60% +4.8%
all 88 +26.7% +14.7% 60% 60% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 60% +4.8%
10% +3.7% 60% -5.3%
15% -6.3% 56% -14.4%
20% -15.5% 45% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$39 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$1,014
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses53 / 35
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 92
History coverage22d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 51¢ 50¢ $121 $117 −$4 (-3%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 40¢ 22¢ $32 $17 −$15 (-46%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 46¢ 44¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $32 +$40 +124%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $116 −$114 -98%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $32 −$31 -99%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 24 $97 −$2 -2%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 24 $64 +$35 +55%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $111 +$99 +89%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 23 $64 −$63 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $32 +$31 +97%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 23 $32 +$34 +105%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $108 +$103 +96%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $97 +$114 +119%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $64 −$63 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $63 −$62 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $64 −$63 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $130 +$80 +62%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $96 +$105 +109%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 20 $64 −$63 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $190 +$197 +104%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $32 +$30 +93%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $128 +$114 +90%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 +$17 +650%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $32 −$31 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 19 $1,593 −$418 -26%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $2 +$18 +712%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +83%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $64 +$45 +70%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 18 $32 +$19 +60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $32 +$28 +86%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $32 +$24 +76%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +149%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 51¢ $15 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $17 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 51¢ $107 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $20 24h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $32 26h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $96 26h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $32 26h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 90¢ $15 38h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 67¢ $64 2d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 34¢ $33 2d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 46¢ $64 2d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 64¢ $64 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $96 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 19¢ $2 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 82¢ $10 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 50¢ $32 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 48¢ $32 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $96 3d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $97 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $64 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $36 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $28 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $64 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 61¢ $130 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 40¢ $64 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 47¢ $96 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $152 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $1 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $32 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.23 · official $150.23 (match) · 231 history records