Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DD 0xdd6a…ef21 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$419 (+10%) realized +$417 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%24W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$303
7 days+$846
14 days+$941
30 days+$356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$279
other 18% +$305
crypto 4% −$170
world 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +37.9% +24.8% 57% 54% +18.6%
≤30d 50 +17.2% +6.0% 48% 46% -2.0%
≤90d 50 +17.2% +6.0% 48% 46% -2.0%
all 50 +17.2% +6.0% 48% 46% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 46% -2.0%
10% -4.1% 46% -11.3%
15% -13.4% 46% -19.9%
20% -21.9% 46% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$72 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$417
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage23d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $63 $66 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Canada Jun 18 $56 −$29 -52%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $103 +$97 +93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $81 +$119 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 +$83 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $47 +$53 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$54 +119%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $51 +$80 +157%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$38 +94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $129 +$71 +55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $48 +$5 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $55 +$45 +82%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$50 +100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $91 +$109 +119%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $207 +$193 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $48 +$52 +108%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $197 +$103 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $168 −$57 -34%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $199 −$79 -40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $24 +$71 +300%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 +$85 +550%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $66 +$84 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $52 +$98 +188%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $202 +$148 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $112 +$138 +122%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $56 +$144 +257%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$198 +194%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $194 +$115 +59%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $140 −$140 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $258 −$258 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang May 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $194 −$194 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Canada BUY 19¢ $26 13h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Canada SELL 17¢ $27 13h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Canada BUY 19¢ $31 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $81 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 29h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $46 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $14 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 79¢ $14 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 79¢ $60 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 79¢ $5 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $51 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $53 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $129 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $48 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $55 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari $10 3d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 28¢ $4 3d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 28¢ $1 3d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 28¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.50 · official $90.42 · 137 history records