Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xdd6a…e217 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$82 (+16%) realized +$85 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 600d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$38
politics 26% +$96
other 18% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 50% -12.2%
≤30d 12 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 50% -12.2%
≤90d 12 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 50% -12.2%
all 13 -11.3% -19.8% 54% 54% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 54% +5.2%
10% -27.5% 54% -4.9%
15% -34.5% 54% -14.1%
20% -40.9% 46% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$25 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage600d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 36¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$18 +89%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 +$16 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $40 +$26 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$13 +62%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $139 +$96 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 8h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $7 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $75 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 69¢ $20 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 33h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $20 33h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $20 36h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 66¢ $20 36h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 598d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 59¢ $139 599d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.57 · official $6.57 (match) · 29 history records