Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd68…5307 sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$17 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate81%66W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days+$15
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$58
other 43% −$144
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.1% -7.6% 82% 59% -8.5%
≤30d 33 +0.0% -9.5% 85% 48% -7.5%
≤90d 78 -5.9% -14.8% 81% 42% -11.4%
all 81 -5.1% -14.1% 81% 43% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 43% -11.0%
10% -22.4% 21% -19.5%
15% -29.9% 5% -27.3%
20% -36.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$32 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses66 / 15
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage95d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $61 −$40 -65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $144 +$9 +6%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $134 +$10 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $129 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $114 +$15 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $90 +$24 +27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 +$14 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $65 +$11 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 +$20 +33%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $85 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $35 +$13 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $35 +$8 +23%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $35 +$12 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $59 +$25 +43%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $60 +$21 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $149 +$24 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $140 +$8 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $63 +$9 +14%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $64 +$5 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $113 +$14 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-26? Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $29 +$7 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $98 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $68 +$30 +43%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $32 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $27 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 17 $5 $0 +3%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 07 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $45 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 26 $37 +$4 +11%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian Apr 26 $36 +$2 +5%
Madrid Open: Mariano Navone vs Alexander Zverev Apr 25 $34 +$2 +5%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Dalma Galfi Apr 25 $30 +$4 +13%
Madrid Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elena Rybakina Apr 25 $29 +$1 +5%
Madrid Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 24 $23 +$5 +23%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Petra Marcinko Apr 23 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 20 $117 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $22 +$7 +34%
Will FURIA win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 17 $87 $0 +1%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $7 +$2 +35%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 10 $11 +$5 +50%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $76 +$3 +4%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Drama eSports (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Group A Apr 03 $39 +$4 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $21 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $61 20h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 83¢ $67 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $144 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $144 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $134 40h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $134 40h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $129 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $129 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $114 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $114 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 78¢ $90 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 91¢ $90 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $76 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $76 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 85¢ $65 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 99¢ $82 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 74¢ $61 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $47 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $38 4d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 81¢ $35 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $35 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL G2 100¢ $81 6d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 74¢ $35 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $35 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $59 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 74¢ $60 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 98¢ $172 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 184 history records