Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd67…60ce crypto 303 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$164 (-4%) realized −$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%137W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$101
other 6% −$71
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -36.0% -42.1% 39% 25% -38.6%
≤30d 44 -36.0% -42.1% 39% 25% -38.6%
≤90d 303 -45.4% -50.6% 45% 9% -13.6%
all 303 -45.4% -50.6% 45% 9% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.6% 9% -13.6%
10% -55.4% 8% -21.9%
15% -59.7% 7% -29.5%
20% -63.6% 2% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses137 / 166
Open positions0
Markets (closed)303 / 303
History coverage55d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 303 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -85%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -84%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -78%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -80%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -91%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -61%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +83%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +38%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +55%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -89%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +82%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -66%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -81%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -60%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -67%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -84%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -35%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -23%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 62-63°F on May 3? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -45%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 28 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 28 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 28 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 28 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 28 $7 +$3 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $6 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $6 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 624 history records