Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd66…f1a9 sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$56 (+30%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% +$2
crypto 27% +$54
sports 26% −$6
other 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -23.7% -31.0% 38% 35% -27.7%
≤30d 27 -22.7% -30.1% 41% 33% -27.1%
≤90d 37 -18.1% -25.9% 51% 30% +17.9%
all 37 -18.1% -25.9% 51% 30% +17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 30% +17.9%
10% -33.0% 27% +6.6%
15% -39.4% 27% -3.7%
20% -45.4% 27% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.8 per $1 lost it wins $3.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)37 / 53
History coverage68d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage InterActive Philippines 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Roar Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Cloud Rising 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 60¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 53¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 67¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Roar Gaming 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) XLG Gaming 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 62¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 57¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 52¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Yakult Brothers 56¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK 65¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Roar Gaming 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 10? May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 10? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 18? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on April 18? May 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 16? Apr 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 15? Apr 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 13? Apr 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 09 $50 +$54 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $1 7m
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 58¢ $1 17m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 63¢ $1 32m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ALKA 64¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 62¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 50¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 53¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 64¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 60¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $1 2h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 56¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 60¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 67¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 53¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 52¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY RisingRage 62¢ $1 11h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 84¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Infinite 44¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 65¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 41¢ $1 13h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $1 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $1 14h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 53¢ $1 15h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 99¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.78 · official $18.78 (match) · 85 history records