Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd66…2b18 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$19
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$7
sports 21% −$16
economics 21% $0
other 14% +$1
politics 5% $0
finance 4% −$19
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 23 -1.3% -10.7% 30% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 30 -6.5% -15.4% 27% 0% -10.1%
all 51 -3.8% -13.0% 27% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage332d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 48¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $85 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $65 −$18 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $174 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $146 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $104 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $125 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $210 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $104 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $100 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $184 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $183 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $87 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $9 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $97 +$3 +3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $1,284 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $613 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $596 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $17 −$15 -92%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $213 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 31 $16 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $70 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 24 $91 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on July 22? Jul 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 21 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $82 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $57 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $56 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $57 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $28 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $43 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $42 33h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $47 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $65 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $7 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $11 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $50 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $62 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $67 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $101 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $69 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $102 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.53 · official $82.65 (match) · 192 history records