Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DD 0xdd62…a229 sports 310 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$192 (+3%) realized +$165 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%141W / 168L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$81
14 days−$235
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$168
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +63.2% +47.7% 50% 50% +90.7%
≤30d 52 -0.5% -10.0% 46% 46% -10.1%
≤90d 214 -11.2% -19.6% 41% 41% -11.0%
all 309 -0.9% -10.3% 46% 46% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 46% -7.5%
10% -18.9% 46% -16.3%
15% -26.7% 46% -24.4%
20% -33.9% 44% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses141 / 168
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions1
Markets (closed)309 / 310
History coverage149d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 100¢ $40 $67 +$27 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $47 +$106 +226%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $40 +$19 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $94 +$186 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$30 +146%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $41 +$40 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 07 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 07 $20 +$17 +83%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$34 +165%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $20 +$23 +115%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $36 +$54 +152%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $43 +$40 +93%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $41 +$29 +71%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Europ Jun 01 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 30 $20 +$21 +103%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $41 +$48 +118%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $41 +$44 +109%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $38 −$37 -98%
Game Handicap: PARI (-2.5) vs Aurora (+2.5) May 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $25 +$29 +112%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $79 +$273 +346%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) May 23 $36 +$48 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $47 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $112 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $60 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $40 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $101 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $280 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $94 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $97 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 33¢ $41 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 46¢ $41 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $41 9d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 50¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 25¢ $41 11d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) BUY M80 48¢ $41 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 43¢ $31 12d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 54¢ $20 12d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 40¢ $20 12d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $41 12d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY GamerLegion 49¢ $41 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BetBoom Team 66¢ $20 13d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 65¢ $20 13d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 59¢ $20 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $20 13d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 37¢ $20 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 39¢ $20 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 58¢ $20 14d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Astralis 54¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.63 · official $66.63 (match) · 610 history records