Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd61…7839 politics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% $0
other 35% $0
economics 12% $0
sports 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage112d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 30 $80 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $80 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $80 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $82 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $82 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $80 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 14h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 15h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 15h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $80 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $80 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $80 11d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $80 12d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $80 27d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $80 28d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 33d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 33d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $80 42d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $80 42d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $80 46d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $81 47d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 48d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $81 48d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $81 52d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $81 53d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $82 72d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $83 73d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $82 77d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $82 78d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $82 86d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $13 86d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $16 86d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $37 86d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $16 86d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records