Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd5f…c343 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$401 (-46%) realized −$383 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$440
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$60 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$383
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Marcello Serafini 22¢ 22¢ $412 $403 −$9 (-2%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Defne Cirpanli vs Eugenia Zozaya Menendez Defne Cirpanli 17¢ 16¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-3%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Meng-Yi Chen 14¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$9 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $307 −$307 -100%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sera Nishimoto Jun 16 $32 −$32 -98%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Defne Cirpanli vs Eugenia Zozaya Menendez BUY Defne Cirpanli 17¢ $13 28m
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 22¢ $17 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Meng-Yi Chen 14¢ $11 2h
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien BUY Leo Vithoontien 14¢ $11 2h
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sera Nishimoto BUY Sera Nishimoto 21¢ $16 4h
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sera Nishimoto BUY Sera Nishimoto 21¢ $16 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.38 · official $418.50 (match) · 66 history records