Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:19:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DD 0xdd5d…1614 world 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7,253 (+8%) realized +$6,735 · open +$518
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%102W / 70L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$10,439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$373
14 days+$171
30 days+$2,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$161
politics 32% +$861
other 14% +$1,306
culture 2% −$183
economics 2% +$65
tech 1% +$219
crypto 1% +$340
sports 0% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +2.4% -7.4% 43% 43% +6.2%
≤30d 30 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 57% +4.8%
≤90d 50 +42.7% +29.1% 56% 50% -0.1%
all 172 +11.9% +1.3% 59% 43% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 43% -6.9%
10% -8.4% 30% -15.8%
15% -17.3% 19% -23.9%
20% -25.4% 14% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$181 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$10,439
Realized+$6,735
Unrealized+$518
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses102 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions16
Markets (closed)172 / 188
History coverage212d
Avg bet$474
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 77¢ 79¢ $3,074 $3,160 +$86 (+3%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 53¢ 74¢ $1,840 $2,579 +$739 (+40%)
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 81¢ 80¢ $2,280 $2,239 −$41 (-2%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $528 $950 +$422 (+80%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 14¢ 50¢ $100 $350 +$250 (+251%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 62¢ 34¢ $621 $339 −$282 (-45%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $329 $325 −$4 (-1%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $221 $192 −$29 (-13%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 42¢ 26¢ $256 $160 −$96 (-37%)
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 69¢ 72¢ $106 $111 +$5 (+5%)
Will Chip Keating win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 10¢ $0 $23 +$22 (+5150%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes $326 $5 −$321 (-98%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes $85 $4 −$81 (-95%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes $155 $3 −$152 (-98%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 64¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+55%)
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 35¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jennifer Lopez perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime Jun 16 $17 −$8 -46%
Will Maluma perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Wizkid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -38%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $23 +$82 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $53 −$52 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $38 +$65 +172%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $280 +$171 +61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $452 +$49 +11%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $270 +$35 +13%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 10 $880 +$147 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 07 $310 +$170 +55%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 07 $775 +$222 +29%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 07 $1,458 +$565 +39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$75 +147%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $1,034 +$266 +26%
Will Alani Bankhead be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Jun 03 $3 +$3 +103%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 03 $391 +$109 +28%
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Jun 03 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $1,555 −$1,540 -99%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 02 $76 −$74 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $659 +$340 +52%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el May 31 $395 +$60 +15%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $5,218 +$1,916 +37%
Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary el May 20 $121 −$117 -97%
Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary el May 05 $6 +$281 +4727%
Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary ele May 05 $42 −$40 -96%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 07 $1,100 −$75 -7%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 07 $257 −$6 -2%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 05 $970 −$70 -7%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 05 $1,365 −$1,365 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $840 +$510 +61%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 02 $430 −$18 -4%
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear Apr 01 $195 +$536 +275%
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility? Apr 01 $200 +$48 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $922 +$92 +10%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $500 +$44 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 01 $400 +$106 +26%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $650 +$122 +19%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $1,000 +$150 +15%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 28 $150 +$86 +57%
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? Mar 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? Mar 21 $117 −$85 -73%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 21 $432 +$44 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Jennifer Lopez perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime SELL Yes $9 3h
Will Maluma perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will Wizkid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL Yes $5 3h
Will Maluma perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 3h
Will Wizkid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY Yes $8 3h
Will Jennifer Lopez perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime BUY Yes $17 3h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 25¢ $8 10h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 30¢ $5 13h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 30¢ $6 13h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,438.80 · official $10,746.66 · 1510 history records