Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd5a…b6b0 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 866d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$209 (-32%) realized −$172 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$353
7 days−$353
14 days−$368
30 days−$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$357
sports 34% −$57
politics 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-58.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -87.1% -88.3% 0% 0% -80.7%
≤30d 10 -90.9% -91.8% 0% 0% -81.3%
≤90d 11 -91.8% -92.6% 0% 0% -81.5%
all 33 -54.0% -58.4% 21% 21% -80.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.4% 21% -80.5%
10% -62.3% 18% -82.3%
15% -66.0% 12% -84.0%
20% -69.3% 9% -85.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

866d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage866d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Yes 26¢ 16¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 29 $153 −$10 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $148 −$147 -100%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-17? May 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Romania end in a draw? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05? Dec 09 $1 +$2 +122%
Will Solana reach $220 October 13-19? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? Oct 14 $1 $0 +45%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 12 $0 $0 -30%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will PSV beat Stade Brestois? Jan 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juventus beat Manchester City? Jan 07 $0 $0 +300%
Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? Dec 10 $0 $0 +28%
Commanders vs. Ravens Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $0 $0 +119%
Netherlands vs. Turkey - Who will advance? Aug 11 $1 $0 +32%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Aug 11 $1 −$1 -100%
$GME halted again by Friday? Jul 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Wormhole token FDV more than 7 billion a week after airdrop? May 06 $1 $0 +12%
Will US gain more than 353k jobs in February? Mar 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will US gain 200k-250k jobs in February? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 14¢ $21 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 14¢ $136 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 8h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan $82 8h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan $21 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $117 10h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan $6 11h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan $5 11h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan $1 11h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan $0 11h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan $10 12h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan $40 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $55 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY $14 13h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $5 12d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on 2026 BUY 38¢ $10 12d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $3 12d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $7 12d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 46d
Will Türkiye vs. Romania end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 95d
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 95d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 163d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 202d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 236d
Will Solana reach $220 October 13-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 258d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 284d
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 507d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.46 · official $69.23 · 64 history records