Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DD 0xdd5a…84b9 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$25 (+26%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$2
sports 39% +$27
crypto 9% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.3% -5.7% 50% 40% -3.7%
≤30d 11 +9.9% -0.5% 55% 45% +6.9%
≤90d 11 +9.9% -0.5% 55% 45% +6.9%
all 11 +9.9% -0.5% 55% 45% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 45% +6.9%
10% -10.0% 45% -3.4%
15% -18.7% 45% -12.7%
20% -26.7% 36% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage16d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$22 +219%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +107%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +155%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +40%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $18 +$12 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 19h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $33 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records