Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd59…2e2f other 1155 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,534 (+2%) realized +$2,326 · open +$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%643W / 488L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$800est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4,481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,734
7 days−$908
14 days−$1,353
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$3,560
other 49% +$5,475
world 1% +$309
crypto 0% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +31.4% +18.9% 59% 54% -13.3%
≤30d 304 +9.4% -1.1% 55% 53% -9.9%
≤90d 1131 +6.7% -3.5% 57% 55% -7.9%
all 1131 +6.7% -3.5% 57% 55% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 55% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 54% -16.7%
15% -21.2% 48% -24.8%
20% -28.9% 37% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$91 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$4,481
Realized+$2,326
Unrealized+$208
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses643 / 488
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$800
Open positions24
Markets (closed)1131 / 1155
History coverage69d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 1131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $462 $465 +$3 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $450 $459 +$9 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $348 $441 +$93 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $426 $429 +$3 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $294 $303 +$9 (+3%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $164 $195 +$31 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $174 $187 +$13 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $130 $185 +$55 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $179 $184 +$6 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $124 $183 +$59 (+48%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $184 $177 −$7 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $174 $169 −$5 (-3%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $170 $143 −$27 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 70¢ $134 $141 +$7 (+5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $158 $139 −$19 (-12%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 54¢ $74 $108 +$34 (+46%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $116 $106 −$10 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $82 $105 +$23 (+28%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $92 $81 −$11 (-12%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $60 $75 +$15 (+25%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $64 $61 −$3 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $118 $61 −$57 (-48%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $66 $55 −$11 (-17%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 341 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $444 +$156 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $292 +$308 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,464 +$569 +39%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $426 +$174 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $115 +$134 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $262 −$258 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $501 −$498 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $480 +$120 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $634 −$34 -5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,663 −$1,650 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $222 +$378 +170%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $184 −$180 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,093 −$1,080 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $614 −$606 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $288 +$312 +108%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $444 +$156 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $228 +$372 +163%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,156 +$44 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $252 +$148 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $598 +$2 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 +$545 +982%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $174 −$174 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $402 +$198 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $107 +$120 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $144 +$456 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $436 −$155 -36%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $465 −$462 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $483 +$117 +24%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $438 −$438 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $438 +$162 +37%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $268 +$332 +124%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $438 +$162 +37%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $468 +$132 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $504 +$96 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $596 +$4 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $322 +$71 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $256 +$344 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 +$498 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $252 +$348 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $246 +$354 +144%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $432 −$432 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $414 +$186 +45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $286 +$314 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $483 +$117 +24%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $186 −$186 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $430 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $298 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $292 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $262 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $501 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $11 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $86 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $292 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $292 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 47¢ $833 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $292 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $426 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $288 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $298 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $352 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $465 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $50 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $122 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $158 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $334 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $334 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $298 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $334 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $480 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $394 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $30 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $6 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,481.18 · official $4,466.00 (match) · 2462 history records