Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

DD 0xdd59…d1c4 sports 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 53d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$172 (-16%) realized −$122 · open −$50

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip

Net edge-64%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$217per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-64.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	-55.8%	-60.0%	0%	0%	-26.1%
≤90d	3	-60.4%	-64.2%	0%	0%	-28.6%
all	3	-60.4%	-64.2%	0%	0%	-28.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-64.2%	0%	-28.6%
10%	-67.6%	0%	-35.4%
15%	-70.8%	0%	-41.7%
20%	-73.6%	0%	-47.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -60% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$65 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized−$122

Unrealized−$50

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage53d

Avg bet$217

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	$100	$50	−$50 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 02	$69	−$66	-96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$809	−$94	-12%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	May 16	$50	−$35	-70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$100	2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Scotland vs. Morocco end	BUY	11¢	$56	30h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$52	14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$17	15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	50¢	$715	17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	55¢	$809	17d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	2¢	$15	31d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$50	53d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 8 history records