Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xdd58…18f9 sports 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$29,006 (-5%) realized −$90,601 · open +$61,595
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%117W / 125L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$2,378per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$6,648est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$63,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$53,730
other 11% +$59,699
culture 5% +$26,733
crypto 1% +$3,133
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +49.1% +34.9% 54% 54% +68.3%
≤30d 99 +38.7% +25.5% 56% 54% +22.7%
≤90d 209 +17.9% +6.6% 50% 48% +2.4%
all 242 +19.8% +8.4% 48% 47% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.4% 47% +3.0%
10% -2.0% 47% -6.8%
15% ← realistic here -11.5% 45% -15.8%
20% -20.1% 44% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$3,388) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,579 vs −$1,948 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$63,408
Realized−$90,601
Unrealized+$61,595
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses117 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$6,648
Open positions22
Markets (closed)242 / 264
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$2,378
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 56¢ $0 $25,530 +$25,530 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 68¢ $0 $10,125 +$10,125 (+0%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 66¢ $0 $5,119 +$5,119 (+0%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 52¢ $0 $3,470 +$3,470 (+0%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 55¢ $0 $3,133 +$3,133 (+0%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 84¢ $0 $3,062 +$3,062 (+0%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 0¢ 42¢ $0 $2,975 +$2,975 (+0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 28¢ $0 $1,784 +$1,784 (+0%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 90¢ $0 $1,743 +$1,743 (+0%)
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 22¢ $1,814 $1,316 −$497 (-27%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 14¢ $0 $1,120 +$1,120 (+0%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 57¢ $0 $839 +$839 (+0%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 0¢ 70¢ $0 $794 +$794 (+0%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 0¢ 62¢ $0 $739 +$739 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 41¢ $0 $493 +$493 (+0%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 40¢ $0 $337 +$337 (+0%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 32¢ $0 $289 +$289 (+0%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 0¢ 50¢ $0 $263 +$263 (+0%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 34¢ $0 $117 +$117 (+0%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 0¢ 14¢ $0 $84 +$84 (+0%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 42¢ $0 $76 +$76 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $324 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $4,720 +$3,280 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3,360 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,925 +$4,575 +156%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $2,112 +$1,403 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $4,080 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $740 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $109 +$97 +89%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4,270 +$2,730 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $181 +$240 +133%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,342 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,000 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 +$4 +61%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $2,878 +$4,900 +170%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $3,891 +$7,774 +200%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 15 $2,800 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,977 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $2,040 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,982 $0 +0%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $299 +$413 +138%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,358 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3,480 $0 +0%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,520 −$2,520 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,460 −$2,460 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,707 −$4,707 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4,240 −$4,240 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,331 −$6,331 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6,540 +$6,460 +99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $4,261 +$5,739 +135%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,709 +$3,606 +133%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,180 +$2,820 +89%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $7 +$19 +257%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $3,500 +$4,278 +122%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1,698 +$763 +45%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4,500 +$3,000 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $969 −$969 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 13 $874 −$874 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) Jun 13 $3,300 −$3,300 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 13 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3,889 −$3,889 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4,410 +$2,590 +59%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,644 +$1,401 +85%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $4,990 +$3,105 +62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3,592 +$7,637 +213%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,832 +$3,151 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $86 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $45 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $8 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $232 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $517 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $16 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $310 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $16 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $155 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $155 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $269 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $93 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $146 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $85 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $1,764 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $37 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $144 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $7 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $7 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $8 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $42 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $27 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $28 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $6 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $7 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $35 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $2,417 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $36 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $28 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,408.49 · official $63,408.53 (match) · 3500 history records