Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd58…1e1c other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$13
politics 11% −$7
other 8% −$19
sports 1% +$24
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 47 +5.0% -5.0% 26% 17% -9.2%
all 59 +3.8% -6.1% 25% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 14% -9.6%
10% -15.1% 12% -18.3%
15% -23.3% 10% -26.2%
20% -30.8% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage605d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $84 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $76 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $78 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $82 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 +$4 +72%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 +$5 +72%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $7 +$5 +70%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 +$8 +104%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $8 +$2 +29%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 +$8 +105%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 06 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $44 $0 +1%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-15? Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? Mar 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $83 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 8h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 10h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 30h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 34h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $12 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $12 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $13 11d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 11d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $12 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 25d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.43 · official $49.43 (match) · 242 history records