Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd55…133c sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%44W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$21
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$51
other 15% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +2.1% -7.7% 56% 56% -7.5%
≤30d 80 +7.3% -3.0% 55% 55% -6.7%
≤90d 80 +7.3% -3.0% 55% 55% -6.7%
all 80 +7.3% -3.0% 55% 55% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 55% -6.7%
10% -12.2% 54% -15.6%
15% -20.7% 50% -23.8%
20% -28.5% 45% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses44 / 36
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)80 / 86
History coverage36d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva Mirra Andreeva 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Alexandra Eala vs Renata Zarazua Alexandra Eala 83¢ 82¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Athletic Club vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? No 70¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 69¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $5 +$9 +165%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $4 +$2 +65%
ITF Brussels: Marvin Moeller vs Dylan Dietrich Jun 27 $4 +$3 +70%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 25 $10 +$5 +52%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $6 +$3 +55%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Jun 25 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Elias Ymer vs Timofey Skatov Jun 24 $5 +$9 +165%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jun 24 $2 −$1 -39%
ITF Tarvisio: Gabriela Ce vs Pia Lovric Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Ugo Humbert vs. Mattia Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner Jun 23 $10 +$4 +42%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $5 +$8 +152%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Naomi Osaka vs. Elise Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$7 +67%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Celine Naef vs Joanna Garland Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close Jun 23 $10 +$7 +65%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $10 +$8 +76%
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu Jun 22 $10 +$8 +76%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel Jun 22 $25 +$6 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo Jun 22 $5 +$5 +105%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Emiliana Arango Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $10 +$6 +57%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Federico Cina Jun 22 $3 +$1 +42%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) Jun 20 $5 +$7 +129%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$6 +109%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $2 $0 -16%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $6 +$5 +90%
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 80¢ $25 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 58¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Alexandra Eala vs Renata Zarazua BUY Alexandra Eala 83¢ $25 7h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60¢ $4 7h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 37¢ $5 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 69¢ $1 9h
Will Athletic Club vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $1 13h
ITF Brussels: Marvin Moeller vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 58¢ $4 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 58¢ $3 30h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Fabian Marozsan 30¢ $3 33h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 38¢ $5 34h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Andres Santamarta 36¢ $5 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 31¢ $3 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Oliver Tarvet 65¢ $10 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Jelena Ostapenko 64¢ $6 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 74¢ $25 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Naomi Osaka 57¢ $1 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Toby Samuel 59¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $5 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Taylor Fritz 82¢ $2 4d
Ugo Humbert vs. Mattia Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 57¢ $10 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Andrea Pellegrino 36¢ $5 4d
Naomi Osaka vs. Elise Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 59¢ $10 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Elias Ymer vs Timofey Skatov BUY Timofey Skatov 37¢ $5 4d
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 39¢ $5 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Celine Naef vs Joanna Garland BUY Celine Naef 69¢ $0 4d
ITF Tarvisio: Gabriela Ce vs Pia Lovric BUY Pia Lovric 33¢ $3 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Sara Bejlek 48¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.