Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xdd54…ccb0 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% $0
other 27% +$1
politics 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 46% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 46% 0% -9.5%
all 40 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage465d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $50 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $34 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $73 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 12 $4 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $1 $0 +17%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $11 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $12 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $13 $0 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $35 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $21 4h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 4h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $9 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $34 15h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $35 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $10 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $25 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $35 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $31 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $3 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $33 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 2¢ $0 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $38 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $38 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records