Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd52…be23 politics 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$17
other 42% −$14
sports 6% +$32
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -1.0% -10.4% 9% 6% -9.4%
all 112 -2.4% -11.7% 10% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 6% -9.5%
10% -20.1% 6% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage116d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $305 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $306 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $325 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 23 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $630 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $345 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $305 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $246 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $77 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $241 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 06 $215 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $544 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $265 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $195 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $202 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $252 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $323 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $480 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $241 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $256 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $239 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $239 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $344 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 8h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 43h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $45 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 14d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 21d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 22d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $263 22d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $263 26d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $306 26d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $306 27d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $325 27d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $325 27d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $309 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.99 · official $38.99 (match) · 309 history records