Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd51…1041 sports 167 markets active 17h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,941 (+2%) realized +$8,941 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%90W / 77L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,508per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3,722est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,609
7 days−$4,513
14 days−$3,482
30 days+$17,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$9,624
other 35% −$7,340
world 1% +$3,830
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -20.1% -27.7% 50% 50% -16.4%
≤30d 95 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 56% -0.7%
≤90d 167 +4.5% -5.4% 54% 54% -8.2%
all 167 +4.5% -5.4% 54% 54% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 54% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 53% -17.0%
15% -22.8% 49% -25.0%
20% -30.3% 43% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$3,292) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,228 vs −$2,525 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,941
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses90 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,722
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage59d
Avg bet$2,508
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,036 +$525 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $443 +$732 +165%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2,698 +$1,758 +65%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $195 −$192 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4,494 −$4,432 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $722 +$186 +26%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10,867 +$3,900 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3,921 +$1,330 +34%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1,930 −$1,901 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,106 −$3,079 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2,720 −$2,686 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $942 +$305 +32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1,519 +$1,060 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,141 +$1,022 +90%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1,758 +$964 +55%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2,172 +$1,443 +66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,727 +$684 +40%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $873 −$859 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,103 −$1,097 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $347 −$341 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,187 −$1,181 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $688 +$273 +40%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,029 +$315 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $1,696 +$1,441 +85%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,318 +$630 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,805 +$1,976 +109%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 12 $460 −$453 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $453 −$445 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $805 −$799 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $620 −$610 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 11 $712 −$701 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $663 −$652 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $333 −$328 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $3,374 −$3,300 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $1,052 +$1,106 +105%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $2,133 +$1,164 +55%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 164.5 Jun 10 $1,214 +$1,276 +105%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $938 −$930 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $601 +$287 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 08 $675 −$667 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 162.5 Jun 08 $426 −$420 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 08 $437 −$431 -99%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $731 +$276 +38%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $439 +$480 +109%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $984 +$669 +68%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 07 $423 −$416 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 07 $1,064 +$660 +62%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $151 +$194 +129%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $679 +$282 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $1,700 +$2,109 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $33 16h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $2,003 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $193 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $443 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $19 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $2,679 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $32 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4,462 43h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $282 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $10,585 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $17 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $704 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $11 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $1,919 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $80 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $3,026 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $92 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3,830 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $21 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $2,699 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $4 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1,137 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $9 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $864 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $942 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $14 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $1,505 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $39 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $1,718 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 370 history records