Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd4d…575d crypto 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,287 (-16%) realized −$4,287 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 38L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,570
7 days−$2,570
14 days−$2,570
30 days−$2,570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$3,886
sports 27% −$731
other 1% +$239
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -39.0% -44.8% 50% 25% -74.6%
≤30d 4 -39.0% -44.8% 50% 25% -74.6%
≤90d 4 -39.0% -44.8% 50% 25% -74.6%
all 78 -7.5% -16.3% 51% 46% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 46% -24.3%
10% -24.3% 37% -31.5%
15% -31.6% 29% -38.1%
20% -38.3% 27% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$529) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$276 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage174d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $1,610 −$1,610 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $1,214 −$1,096 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $342 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $406 +$113 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Brisbane International: Clara Tauson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Jan 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Magic vs. Wizards Jan 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Jan 22 $747 −$747 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? Jan 07 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 07 $559 −$559 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 07 $971 +$193 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 07 $179 +$269 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 07 $294 +$44 +15%
Brisbane International: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov Jan 07 $799 −$18 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 07 $75 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 07 $406 +$126 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 06 $217 −$135 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9AM ET Jan 06 $367 −$302 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12PM ET Jan 06 $635 −$167 -26%
Will Leicester City FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC end in a draw? Jan 06 $134 −$134 -100%
Brisbane International: Marie Bouzkova vs Paula Badosa Jan 06 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 06 $294 −$294 -100%
ASB Classic: Camila Osorio vs Petra Marcinko Jan 06 $742 −$635 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 06 $278 −$278 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 06 $347 +$342 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 06 $198 +$102 +52%
ASB Classic: Katie Boulter vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jan 06 $427 +$280 +66%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 06 $295 +$36 +12%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 06 $583 −$527 -90%
Spread: Raptors (-3.5) Jan 06 $94 +$64 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 06 $136 +$81 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 06 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5PM ET Jan 05 $554 +$98 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 05 $579 +$113 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4PM ET Jan 05 $293 +$179 +61%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $279 +$325 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 4PM ET Jan 05 $705 +$32 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 05 $158 +$298 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 05 $177 +$302 +170%
Leicester City FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 05 $186 −$16 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 05 $300 −$181 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3PM ET Jan 05 $627 −$317 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 2PM ET Jan 05 $584 +$162 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 05 $529 −$158 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 1PM ET Jan 05 $945 +$260 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 05 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 05 $24 +$26 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11AM ET Jan 05 $702 +$51 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1,220 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $108 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1091 history records