Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DD
0xdd4b…3568
other · 167 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$320 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$97 · open −$108
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$781
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses46 / 70
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions51
Markets (closed)116 / 167
History coverage184d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 51 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $159 $166 +$8 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $130 $137 +$7 (+5%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $91 $90 −$2 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $53 $55 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $60 $53 −$6 (-10%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 54¢ 15¢ $148 $41 −$107 (-72%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 68¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 82¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+24%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 83¢ 89¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 53¢ 27¢ $38 $19 −$19 (-49%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+45%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? Jun 03 $5 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +70%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +19%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 $0 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $3 $0 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $75 −$15 -20%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $58 −$27 -48%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $1 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $67 −$10 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $27 −$22 -82%
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score May 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 13 $3 $0 +1%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? May 13 $40 $0 -0%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 13 $3 +$4 +124%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? May 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? May 01 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Apr 28 $10 $0 -5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $1 $0 +33%
SE Palmeiras vs. EC Jacuipense: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $1 $0 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $20 −$19 -94%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 20 $5 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $10 $0 -3%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $47 −$7 -16%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 19 $10 −$6 -58%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? Apr 19 $6 −$5 -85%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Apr 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 19 $5 −$1 -16%
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? Apr 19 $20 −$7 -35%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 12 $5 $0 -9%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $70 −$26 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% +$44
politics 32% −$42
other 27% −$136
sports 1% −$35
crypto 1% −$21
economics 0% −$6
finance 0% −$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 0m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 1m
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 86¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5h
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 6h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 47¢ $52 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +11.4% +0.8% 40% 40% -9.4%
≤30d 26 -2.8% -12.1% 35% 35% -29.0%
≤90d 76 -24.1% -31.3% 29% 22% -27.8%
all 116 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 24% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 24% -13.1%
10% -28.7% 18% -21.4%
15% -35.6% 16% -29.0%
20% -41.9% 12% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $780.80 · official $780.81 (match) · 687 history records