Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd49…e12c crypto 1033 markets active 20h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-1%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%675W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$125
other 2% −$98
sports 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 +1.3% -8.4% 67% 53% -12.8%
≤30d 242 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 52% -23.0%
≤90d 1032 -2.8% -12.1% 65% 47% -13.1%
all 1033 -2.8% -12.1% 65% 47% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 47% -13.1%
10% -20.5% 35% -21.4%
15% -28.2% 25% -29.0%
20% -35.2% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses675 / 358
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1033 / 1033
History coverage95d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1033 Trades
no open positions (176 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2530 history records