Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DD 0xdd47…922c crypto 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate80%208W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day67.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 261 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 47% -9.1%
≤30d 261 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 47% -9.1%
≤90d 261 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 47% -9.1%
all 261 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 47% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 47% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 25% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 9% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses208 / 53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)261 / 262
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day67.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.73 · official $12.34 (match) · 531 history records