Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd47…0afa other 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 255L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$43
sports 24% −$23
politics 8% −$7
economics 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
culture 5% −$7
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 266 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage140d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $254 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $347 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $422 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $510 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $123 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $292 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $160 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $135 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $566 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $537 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $374 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $206 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $132 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $435 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $421 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $446 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 2h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 4h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 6h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $58 7h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $58 9h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 10h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 12h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 13h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 14h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 19h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 27h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $59 32h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $59 34h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 41h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 42h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 44h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 46h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1431 history records