Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd46…1aa6 world 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$9
other 12% $0
sports 6% −$4
politics 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 80% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 71% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 12 -6.8% -15.7% 58% 0% -7.8%
all 22 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 0% -9.0%
10% -23.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -31.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage478d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $90 +$1 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $49 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $74 +$6 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $7 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $53 +$2 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $9 $0 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +7%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -8%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 29 $8 $0 +2%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 25 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 24 $13 $0 -4%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 22 $12 $0 +3%
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Mar 03 $17 −$4 -24%
Miami (FL) vs. Georgia Tech Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $50 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $27 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $23 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $11 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $37 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $2 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $50 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $55 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $55 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $29 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $6 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $34 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $49 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $18 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $1 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $12 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $36 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $16 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $8 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $21 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $30 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $9 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $21 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $20 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $51 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records