Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd44…1e6e sports 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$122 (+1%) realized +$120 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%120W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$152
14 days+$357
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$235
other 30% −$167
world 0% −$8
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 47% -7.2%
≤30d 223 -3.8% -12.9% 54% 46% -9.0%
≤90d 223 -3.8% -12.9% 54% 46% -9.0%
all 223 -3.8% -12.9% 54% 46% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 46% -9.0%
10% -21.3% 38% -17.7%
15% -28.9% 27% -25.6%
20% -35.9% 21% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses120 / 103
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)223 / 225
History coverage27d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Colombia 100¢ 100¢ $247 $248 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 52¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$27 +67%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 18 $610 +$6 +1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -91%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $643 +$7 +1%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$7 +15%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $400 +$13 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 +$6 +13%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $582 +$19 +3%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +56%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$8 -44%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +180%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$7 -17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $266 −$266 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $137 +$471 +344%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $143 −$5 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $346 +$62 +18%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $80 +$15 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $151 −$52 -34%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $279 +$81 +29%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$11 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $341 +$49 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $90 −$53 -59%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +69%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $227 +$113 +50%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $36 +$17 +46%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $31 +$4 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $84 +$9 +11%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 12 $134 +$29 +21%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $72 +$12 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 +$22 +43%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $86 +$29 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 100¢ $247 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 52¢ $3 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 8h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 99¢ $610 8h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $650 8h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists SELL Yes $0 8h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $2 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $3 13h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $2 13h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $643 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 24h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $414 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 27h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $100 27h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $300 27h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 41¢ $5 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 97¢ $582 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $609 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $137 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.60 · official $251.34 (match) · 597 history records