Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd43…4357 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate23%9W / 30L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$9
politics 20% $0
other 19% +$10
sports 15% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 20% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 20% 0% -11.7%
all 39 +0.2% -9.4% 23% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 5% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses9 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage325d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $25 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $28 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $11 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $29 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $15 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $38 −$9 -24%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $58 +$9 +15%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $110 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 25 $65 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $62 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $2 $0 -4%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $65 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Iranian coup attempt before August? Jul 30 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $54 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 29 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $28 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $28 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $13 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $13 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $25 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $29 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $29 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $28 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $19 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $8 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $18 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $29 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $29 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $29 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $15 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.57 · official $28.57 (match) · 113 history records